Hi. It’s Mr. Andersen and this environmental

science video 13. It is on human population dynamics. Imagine you have $5000 in the bank

at 5 percent interest rate. How long would it take you to double your money to $10000?

Well you would have to go year by year. So it would be 5000 times 5 percent. Which give

you $250 dollars in the first year. We then have to take 5 percent of that. And five percent

of that. It is a really hard problem. Unless you understand the rule of 70 which is really

simple. To figure out the time it takes to double your money all you do is take the number

70 and you divide it by that percent, so divided it by 5 and it is going to take you approximately

14 years to double your money. Super easy to do. Let’s say we have a population of

100 individuals, a growth rate of 7 percent, how long is it going to take that population

to double to 200 in size? All you do is take 70 divided by that growth rate, 70 divided

by 7 gives you 10 years. How long is it going to take you to double it again from 200 to

400? It is going to take another 10 years? And so you start to see this exponential growth

of the population over time. So in the last video we talked about the important characteristics

of a population. The size, which can be increased and decreased. We then talked about other

characteristics. Density distribution, age structure, sex ratio. So in this video we

are going to talk about how this all applies to the human population. We will start with

density and distribution. We will then talk about the size and how that size has changed

over time. It is very easy to calculate growth rate and now you know how to calculate the

doubling time using the rule of 70. We will talk specifically about birth rates, using

the fertility rate and death rates using the mortality rate. And then how industrialization,

so the development of a country can lead to what is called the demographic transition.

And then finally we will finish up with the age structure diagrams. And these two things

can be used as tools to predict the future population. And so if we start with human

density and distribution it is all over the place. So if we look here in Montana, it is

less than 2 people per kilometer. If we look in the US there are going to be way more people

on the coasts. Way more people in the northeast. Way more people in Western Europe and may

more people in Southeast Asia. In certain areas it is going to be more than 500 per

square kilometer. So there is unequal density and distribution. You can also see some neat

patterns where there is desert. Obviously there is not going to be a lot of people.

We could look at the history of humans which has maintained stability over a long period

of time but recently has shown exponential growth. Now what lead to that is going to

be industrialization. So if you have access to constant food, constant sanitation, good

medicine, we see an increase in the population. Now there are some blips along the way. There

is going to be the bubonic plague where a third of the people in Europe died. But you

can see over time we are seeing massive increases. What happens next? We will talk more about

that in the next video. And so if we look at the basic level, what is increasing a population?

Births. What is decreasing it? Deaths. And so we have what is called the rate of natural

increase. And so the equation is simple. The rate of natural increase equals the crude

birth rate minus the crude death rate divided by 10. And the reason we are dividing by 10

is these values are generally expressed per thousand peoples. So in 2013 the crude birth

rate in Afghanistan was 34 people being born for every 1000 people. Crude death rate is

only 8. So if we want to figure out the rate of natural increase we just plug those values

in. 34 minus 8 is 26 divided by 10 is 2.6 percent. And so that means this population

is going to be increasing over time. Now you could try one with the United States. If I

give you the birth rate and the death rate could you calculate that rate of natural increase?

I hope so. I will put the answer in the description down below. Now once we have that value, how

much it is increasing is very easy to figure out the doubling time. So how do we do that?

Remember that rule of 70? You simply take 70 divided by the increase percent, which

is going to be 2.6. And then it is going to give us approximately 27 years. So what does

that mean? The population in Afghanistan right now is 30 million. So in 27 years it will

be 60 million. And so if it is 2013 when these values were given out, it is going to be 2040

when the population goes to 60 million. Now is that super accurate? It may change over

time, and I am not really dealing with immigration and emigration, but it is a simple powerful

tool that you can use. Now what is changing the birth rate? We call that, demographers

call that a total fertility rate. That is going to be the number of births per woman

during her reproductive period of time. And so if we look at what it is in Afghanistan,

it is 4.9. So this imaginary woman who is around today will in general have 5 children.

If we look at what it is in the US that number is going to be 1.9. So why do we see such

a huge difference between Afghanistan and the US? Well let’s talk globally for a second.

So the TFR, total fertility rate, back in 1950 globally around the world was 4.9. So

it is closer to what Afghanistan is today. And you can see that it is decreased over

time. So why do we see this decrease over time? Well in developed countries women are

going to have access to birth control. They are also going to have access to education

and employment. Therefore they do not have to get married and start having kids right

away for stability. So they are going to have less kids over time. Now a value that demographers

will use is called the replacement level fertility. What does that value have to be to keep our

population stable? And so you might think it is going to be 2. Because we have the mom

and she has to replace herself and the dad. So you would think it would be 2. But do to

mortality rate it has to be a little bit higher. And in developing countries it has to be even

a little bit higher than that to have a stable population. So if we look at those fertility

rates there is going to be unequal distribution. So in the United States the value is going

to be between 1 and 2. But in Sub-Saharan Africa we are going to see really large values.

That is because a lot of these are developing countries. Now we have only talked about the

fertility rate and we have not talked about the mortality rate. So if we look at the average

life span in different countries, in a lot of Sub-Saharan Africa that is going to be

really low. Like in Afghanistan it is going to be the average person only living between

45 and 50. Now disease, war can contribute to that. One of the best measures of how developed

a country is is the infant mortality rate. So in the US that value is going to be between

5 and 9 per 1000 people. But look at this. In some parts of Africa that number is going

to be approaching 100. In other words 1 of 10 infants that are born are going to die.

And so what I have been alluding to is this demographic transition. What happens as a

country is industrialized? What happens as it goes from a preindustrial to postindustrial

country? And a really good model is called the demographic transition. So births are

going to be in green. Deaths are going to be in red. And so if we look at the death

rate what happens to the death rate during industrialization? Well it will jump up and

down but eventually what happens is it drops way down and it remains stable. So once we

have access to constant food, sanitation, medicine we are going to decrease that death

rate profoundly. If you look at what happens to the birth rate over time you will see that

it also decreases. But it is shifted to the right a little bit. And so if we look back

at the this model of size being increased by births and decreased by deaths, what do

you think is going to happen preindustrial? Well if these birth and death rates are essentially

the same, now they are moving up and down, what is going to happen to our population

which I have graphed over here on the right. It is going to remain stable. As we move into

this transitional period watch what happens. The first thing that happens is the death

rate will drop off during industrialization. But it takes awhile for people to realize

that and start having less children. And so it takes awhile for the birth rate to drop

off. And so if we have a population where the birth rate is higher than the death rate,

think about this down here, if more births are coming in then deaths are leaving we are

going to see a massive exponential increase in the population. What happens as these two

approach each other, during the industrial phase, as the birth rate eventually drops

to the death rate you could imagine that it is going to stabilize again. And then what

is happening postindustrial, eventually we see the population dropping off. So we can

see this is a lot of countries. Again it is just a model. So it is not going to be perfect.

But we can look at countries who have gone through this and allow us to make predictions

about what is going to happen to countries in the future. So in certain countries we

can see the demographic transition occur. So this is Sweden. What we are looking at

here is going to be the birth rates in blue and then the death rates in red. So if we

look way back in time in the 1700s there is a huge increase in death rates, so this was

the small pox outbreak. But what happens over time is the death rate drops off first and

then the birth rate drops off second. And then you can see they reach each other at

the same point. So what happened to the population of Sweden during this demographic transition?

It increased and then it became stable. A good way to look at where a population is

and where it is headed is using something called an age structure diagram. And so on

an age structure diagram, we will put males on one side, females on the other. And then

the percent they make up of the population. And so if you are a female watching this and

you are 18 right now, we could find you right here. So you would be right here. So in this

country you would make up around 7 percent of the population. Now if we see an age structure

diagram like this where we do not have very many people that are very old, and we have

lots of young people, this is going to be a population that is just increasing, just

going through that demographic transition. If however we get an age structure diagram

that looks like this which is pretty much straight on the sides, this is going to be

a more stable population. Now this would be what the United States looks like and you

can even see the baby boomers, this large group of babies that were born after World

War II. And they are just going to work their way up through the age structure diagram.

If we look at this demographic transition, where is this going to be? Right there. But

if we look at a country like Japan, at the bottom we are not going to have many youth

at all. And so where is that going to be? We are going to call that postindustrial.

Now there are going to be advantages and disadvantages of each of these. But we will talk about those

in the next video. And so did you learn the following. That the human population, characteristics

are density, distribution, sex ratio, age structure, which we can see in an age structure

diagram. The size is the most important thing. We can use the growth rate to figure out the

doubling time. But what are the other two things that contribute to that? Birth rate

and mortality rate or fertility rate and mortality rate. Remember industrialization is going

to bring about the demographic transition. And we can use these two tools to predict

the future. We will talk more about what the future holds for humans, but I hope that was

helpful.

excellent presentation. thank you.

I would agree but for the fact that over time you should have a value for increase/decrease of death/birth as it might have a cumulative or see saw effect. Not sure if I explained that correctly it's like saying if a population starts to have far more deaths or births you would see the results up front but then they would have an opposite effect at a quantifiable time in the future is that better I hope so. Good video though I would stick to the actual numbers instead of trying to adjust them based on technology that is a selective way of framing a narrative akin to them adjusting temperatures based on what scientists "think but cannot recreate/replicate". If you want to add a technical factor like technology you have to realize that actual wealth or disparity of wealth has far more of a literal effect though I realize that many on a perch would like to discount this factor for obvious reasons.

For those of you who are

EXTREMELYinterested in Swedish historical death rates, the top in the chart is famine and alot of dysentry. So it was a party, for sure. The other two peaks are also famine coinciding with wars with Russia again and again… and again… and again.What this tells us scientifically (not) is that if you're having great famine in your country, the death rate can be mitigated by going to war with Russia. π

(No, we lost Finland in the war of 1809. If the chart does not account for that fact, the last high peak would probably be higher)

There is a big fear of overpopulation but when death rates go down the population should stabilize. If you look at decreasing, Russia is the worst. I started looking at 143.5. There is a drop about one person per minute. It now has 142 and 6000 thousand to go before it drops down to 141. The loss is about 1 person per minute around the clock. India has an increase of about 1 person per second!!! They never sleep. China had 1.3 billion when I looked and now 1.4 plus already 4 million over 1.4. Putin sure has something to think about.

Really needed this. Thanks.

have u slept??

poor guy…

lol.. this guy knows everything about anything…

Can you talk about potential promoter sites and number of motif in Escherichia Coli? Thank's

well if the world has right now 1.2% RNI, means there will be over 14 billion people in the world in 2072 (just 58 yeras)

Hello teacher Anderson ,thanks for upload video and hope u will add Thai sub again ,your Thai student is here,thank you so much.

okay, so say i started with 8 folk. How many years would it take to reach the present world population of 7 billion? 2000? 4000?

I am sorry to say that this video seems rushed. Many of your videos are fantastic but I could not finish this one and I will not be able to recommend it or assign it to my students.

You saved my grade! Thank you so much!!!!

can you please post the sources of the information

For those who are wondering why he divides by ten, it is because he simplified the process. After subtracting CDR FROM CBR, you divide by 1000 (for every 1000 people) and then multiply by 100 to express as a percent, thus, it is simplified by converting 100/1000 as dividing by 10.

Its fully easy to catch up. I enjoyed it a lot. Its reallt holistic.

The real reason for the jump in longevity is enclosed sanitation systems, not vaccines. Vaccines are correlated with an INCREASE in death, and from exactly the disease for which large scale vaccines were given. This is because it is engineered to kill, and to reduce the IQ of the general population. Operation Paper Clip.

Mr. Anderson, Great Videos! Here, though, I must comment on a basic premise of this video: Your discussions follows a line of thought that people reproduce based upon thinking about maintaining the basic population. Pakistani families do not have 5 children because they want to maintain the population of their nation. Nor do Americans decide to have fewer children based upon their perceived security. Instead, people have more or fewer children due to their culture. They do what they are told- via religious leaders, newspapers, Hollywood movies, and even from YouTube. Now, here is the homework question: Who owns those outlets of information (thought-influence leading to thought-control) and why do they want Americans and Europeans to have fewer children and pagan nations to have more?

It is a population pyramid, not an age structure diagram (I refuse to call it that.) Otherwise, very well done.

Nice lecture. I have used the rule of 72 for at least 40 years. You can test with an Excel spreadsheet.

Great video thanks π

awesome!!!

Yeah I'm an 18 year old female in Sweden haha

Why does the rule of 70 work?

I really appreciate your work. I don't know what was your inspiration to make these amazing educational videos, but THEY ARE REALLY HELPFUL. Thank you so much for doing this. Keep up the good work. I watched these videos for Toefl exam, I need to have a basic knowledge for a listening part lol.

you suck bro